BILL ADONGO

          

                                                        PERSONAL MEMORANDUM

To Society of Actuary and Casualty Society of Actuaries-(Canada)

From Bill Adongo

Date: 23^th January, 2014

Even though Buhlmann and Buhlmann-Straub models rely on the equation µ(θ)=ZX +(1-Z)µ  for estimating of credibility frequency or factor for premiums and rates making in insurance industry. In credibility theory, is the error that matters most when estimating credibility frequency or factor for premium and rating making in insurance industry.

I had made several improvement on credibility theory by providing three equations µ^*(ѳ_i) = α_ix_im+ β_ix_m,     ∆r=(1-NP/PP)/α_i  and  NP=α_iX_im+β_iX_m  which are used  for computing credibility frequency or factor and for rating and premium making in insurance industry. This model is called the greatest accuracy because, it predict credibility factor, next policy rate and next policy premium in insurance industry without random errors. It is more accurate and important than Buhlmann and Buhlmann-Straub models, also accurate and important than judgment rating, class rating and merit rating.

My credibility theory and rating theory have practical applications in auto insurance, worker compensation insurance, homeowners insurance, life insurance and health insurance.

Knowing you as experience actuaries in your societies, I will like to know more about you. I have interest of being part of your societies.