PERSONAL MEMORANDUM
To Society of Actuary and Casualty Society of Actuaries-(Canada)
From Bill Adongo
Date: 23th January, 2014
Even though Buhlmann and Buhlmann-Straub models rely on the
equation µ(θ)=ZX +(1-Z)µ for estimating of credibility frequency or
factor for premiums and rates making in insurance industry. In credibility
theory, is the error that matters most when estimating credibility frequency or
factor for premium and rating making in insurance industry.
I had made several improvement on credibility theory by
providing three equations µ*(ѳi)
= αixim+ βixm, ∆r=(1-NP/PP)/αi and NP=αiXim+βiXm
which are used for computing credibility frequency or factor
and for rating and premium making in insurance industry. This model is
called the greatest accuracy because, it predict credibility factor, next
policy rate and next policy premium in insurance industry without random errors.
It is more accurate and important than Buhlmann and Buhlmann-Straub models,
also accurate and important than judgment rating, class rating and merit
rating.
My
credibility theory and rating theory have practical applications in auto
insurance, worker compensation insurance, homeowners insurance, life insurance
and health insurance.
Knowing
you as experience actuaries in your societies, I will like to know more about
you. I have interest of being part of your societies.
